Long-term sickness in the UK workforce: What do the figures show?

Here the PA news agency looks at what the latest employment statistics show about inactivity and sickness.

– What does ‘economically inactive’ mean?

It is a term used by statisticians to describe people who are part of the labour market but unable to start a job or have chosen not to look for employment.

It is not the same as being unemployed, which refers to people who are actively seeking work but do not have a job.

Reasons for being economically inactive include temporary or long-term sickness, early retirement, looking after family members at home – such as newborn children – or studying at college or university.

– How many people are currently economically inactive?

There were an estimated 9.30 million economically inactive 16-64 year-olds in the three months from May to July 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is up from 9.14 million in the same period a year earlier and 8.76 million in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, though the figure stood at 9.13 million a decade ago in May-July 2014.

The latest total of 9.30 million is the equivalent of 21.9% of all 16-64 year-olds.

The proportion of the workforce who are economically inactive has been broadly stable for the last decade – since summer 2014 it has never risen higher than 22.4% or dropped below 20.5%.

– How many are economically inactive due to long-term sickness?

Some 2.79 million people are estimated to have been economically inactive in May-July 2024 due to long-term sickness.

This is up from 2.71 million in the same period a year earlier and 2.05 million in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, while a decade ago the figure stood at 2.03 million.

The ONS adjusted its calculations in July 2022 to incorporate new population estimates, which may have affected the long-term trend.

But even focusing just on the data since the population adjustment, the number has increased, rising from 2.64 million in July-September 2022 to 2.79 million in May-July of this year.

– What proportion of the economically inactive total is due to long-term sickness?

Long-term sickness is estimated to account for 30.0% of all those economically inactive in May-July 2024, up from 29.7% a year ago.

Five years ago, in May-July 2019, the proportion was 23.8%.

Over the same five-year period, the proportion of people who gave looking after family as a reason for economic inactivity dropped from 23.3% to 18.5%, while those giving retirement as a reason fell from 12.8% to 11.3%.

– How do levels of economic inactivity vary across the country?

There are sharp differences in the rate of inactivity across the UK’s nations and regions.

Some 27.5% of 16-64 year-olds in Northern Ireland are estimated to have been economically inactive in May to July 2024, the highest level among the four UK nations, while England had the lowest figure at 21.4%.

North-east England had the highest regional rate, at 26.3%, while south-west England had the lowest, at 18.3%.

Here are the full figures, with the year-on-year change in percentage points in brackets:

Northern Ireland 27.5% (-0.8)
Wales 27.2% (+2.8)
North-east England 26.3% (+3.5)
North-west England 23.4% (+0.7)
Yorkshire/Humber 24.5% (+0.5)
Scotland 22.3% (+0.5)
East Midlands 21.0% (-0.1)
West Midlands 22.9% (+1.2)
Eastern England 21.3% (+1.5)
London 20.1% (-3.4)
South-east England 18.9% (+1.7)
South-west England 18.3% (-1.2)

– And how do levels of long-term sickness vary across the UK?

Regional figures showing the reasons for economic inactivity are calculated using 12-month periods due to small sample sizes, with the latest data covering the period April 2023 to March 2024.

Northern Ireland has the highest proportion of economically active people due to long-term sickness, while London has the lowest.

Here are the figures showing the estimated percentage of economically inactive people giving long-term sickness as the reason:

Northern Ireland 37.4% (106,000 of 284,000 16-64 year-olds in April 2023-March 2024)
North-east England 34.1% (142,000 of 415,000)
Wales 34.0% (155,000 of 456,000)
Scotland 32.7% (259,000 of 791,000)
North-west England 30.6% (321,000 of 1,049,000)
Yorkshire/Humber 29.2% (241,000 of 824,000)
West Midlands 29.1% (233,000 of 800,000)
East Midlands 27.8% (177,000 of 637,000)
Eastern England 26.3% (200,000 of 758,000)
South-west England 26.3% (168,000 of 639,000)
South-east England 22.7% (227,000 of 998,000)
London 19.0% (251,000 of 1,321,000)